Were we right?

Every nowcast, graded against the print it predicted.

Each oracle publishes a number before the official release — frozen as the last tick before 08:30 ET, straight from the append-only tick archive. When the release lands, the call is graded automatically against the BLS data. No deletions, no restatements.

Releases graded

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JOBSNOW avg error

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CPIPERP first grading

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Grading rule

frozen pre-print

JOBSNOW

Payrolls nowcast vs the BLS print.

Thousands of jobs, monthly. Frozen at the last tick before release; realized is the BLS payrolls change (latest estimate — early rows absorb revisions).

NFP · nowcast vs realized · thousands–

–frozen from jobsnow_ticks · graded vs BLS CES

CPIPERP

Inflation nowcast vs the CPI print.

12-month CPI, percent. The oracle publishes a point and a band; a release is a win when the print lands inside the band. Grading starts with the June release on July 14.

CPI yoy · nowcast + band vs realized · %–

–frozen from oracle_ticks · graded vs BLS CPI-U

The rule that makes this page honest. The KOPS column is the last archived tick before the release timestamp — written down when the answer was unknown, graded by a job, never edited. Grades appear here automatically within hours of each print. Methodology: kops.ai/methodology.