CPIPERP · live (YoY)
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The inflation number, continuously — not once a month.
A first-of-its-kind continuous measure of US inflation. Updating in real time from public data and Kalshi's prediction markets, CPIPERP combines the prediction markets with our own model to answer a simple question: where is inflation heading before the BLS says so?
CPIPERP is the live inflation index — it ratchets to the official BLS number on each print day and, between prints, runs continuously toward our forecast for the next one (shown forward).
Kalshi prices CPI for several months out, not just the next print. Stacked together, those markets imply the path of YoY inflation through the rest of the year — the near months liquid and firm, the far months thinner.
How much each source counts toward the index right now. CPIPERP is Kalshi-led: two Kalshi markets — the year-over-year ladder and the monthly (MoM) ladder — set ~85% of the forecast between them, and the Cleveland nowcast + our model cross-check the rest. The number is the market's inflation read, sanity-checked by the models.
Two Kalshi markets set ~85% of this index: the KXCPIYOY year-over-year ladder and the KXCPI monthly (MoM) ladder — the dominant input. For each, these are the strikes where price discovery is happening right now.
A model trained on 25 years of CPI history projects where the next monthly print is likely to land — the starting point the live signals then update.
Live reads update that forecast between prints: Kalshi's two inflation markets (the year-over-year ladder and the monthly MoM ladder), the Cleveland Fed's nowcast, and bond-market inflation expectations.
The two Kalshi markets are held at ~85% of the blend — the dominant input — split between them by how tight each market is; the Cleveland nowcast and our model split the rest as a cross-check. On print day the index snaps to the official BLS number.
Inflation is the number everyone trades around and nobody can see in real time. The BLS prints CPI once a month, weeks after the fact — and in between, everyone reaches for proxies. Economists watch bond-market expectations, desks watch the Cleveland nowcast, the Kalshi signal bets on Kalshi. Each captures a sliver; none is the number itself, continuously.
So between prints you're flying on stale data and scattered signals — more inputs than ever, less clarity than ever. That's a problem worth solving.
CPIPERP solves it. It reads every public inflation signal and the prediction markets, fuses them into one continuous number, and snaps to the official BLS print the moment it lands — a live ticker for inflation, the S&P 500 for CPI. It doesn't wait for the print; it tracks the wave between them, dynamically. A single number that updates as the world changes.
How far our forecast landed from the official print, tested across past releases — including an honest test that only uses data that was available at the time.
Built from public feeds, ratcheted to official truth, deterministically reconstructable.