Recession within 12mo
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Is a recession coming? — priced live, not argued about.
A live probability that the US falls into recession within the next year. Updating continuously from Kalshi's recession market and the yield curve, R12 answers a simple question: how likely is a recession in the next 12 months?
Kalshi's live bet on a recession this year, cross-checked against the yield curve. R12 blends the two into one probability that updates as the data does.
The Kalshi signal leads — weighted up to 60% by how liquid and actively-traded the recession market is — with the yield curve as the cross-check. The more the Kalshi signal is trading, the more it counts.
R12's primary signal is the live recession market — a deep, actively-traded book. This is Kalshi's recession odds over the past six months.
Kalshi's recession market prices the odds of a US recession this year — a deep, liquid market that updates in real time. It's R12's primary signal.
When short-term interest rates rise above long-term ones, a recession has followed almost every time in modern history. It's the classic early warning — here as a cross-check on the Kalshi signal.
The Kalshi signal leads when its market is liquid (tight spread, active trading) — up to 60%. When the book thins out, R12 leans more on the yield curve. No bridge needed: the market already prices this exact 12-month horizon.
By the time a recession is obvious, the move is over. The classic early-warning signals — an inverted yield curve, a stalling economy — flash months apart and rarely agree. So everyone argues about whether one's coming instead of watching the odds move.
The single most consequential macro question — is a downturn coming? — has no single number on it.
R12 puts one number on it. It reads the Kalshi signal's live bet on a recession this year — a deep, actively-traded market — and cross-checks it against the yield curve's century-old track record. One probability, updating continuously, that moves before the headlines do.
Kalshi's bet, cross-checked by the curve — one probability that moves before the headlines.