JOBSNOW · hiring pace · 100 = breakeven
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Where this month's jobs number is heading — before BLS releases it.
A continuous nowcast of US payrolls. Updating in real time from the jobless-claims data that prints first, JOBSNOW tracks the labor market to answer a simple question: where is the jobs number heading before the BLS prints it?
Monthly change in US payrolls over the last four years, with this month’s forecast from jobless claims. Settles to the official BLS number on release day.
Payrolls are genuinely hard to forecast from claims alone, so the range is wide on purpose. Here's how far each forecast landed from the official number.
Most of the nowcast is Kalshi's live jobs market (KXPAYROLLS) — the market-implied payrolls number, repricing every day the book trades. The jobless-claims model is the cross-check.
The recent run of jobs numbers sets the baseline; the claims signal nudges it up or down. Claims alone can only do so much — so the range is honestly wide.
It settles to the first official BLS jobs number — the one the market reacts to. Later revisions count only lightly.
The monthly jobs report moves markets more than almost any number — and you get it once a month, revised twice after. In between, desks guess from ADP, from claims, from vibes. Each is a fragment; none is the payroll number itself, early.
So everyone positions into the print half-blind.
JOBSNOW reads the jobless-claims data that prints first and turns it into a continuous payrolls nowcast. It doesn’t wait for release day; it tracks where payrolls are heading and settles to the first official jobs number when it lands.
JOBSNOW reads Kalshi's live jobs markets — the monthly payrolls (NFP) ladder and the unemployment-rate ladder. These are the strikes where price discovery is happening right now.
Claims-led, first-print-settled, feeding the recession nowcast.