Net rate moves · 12mo
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How many Fed moves the market expects over the next year — and where the Kalshi signal and the curve disagree.
A real-time read on the expected Fed path. Updating continuously from Kalshi’s prediction markets and the Treasury curve, CUTS reads both to answer a simple question: how many cuts does the market expect — and where does the Kalshi signal disagree with the curve?
How many rate moves the market expects: the Kalshi signal versus the bond market. When they pull apart, that disagreement is the tradeable signal.
Kalshi's rate-cut-count market shows how many cuts traders expect this year. We turn that into Kalshi's expected number of rate moves.
The 1-year Treasury yield implies where the bond market expects rates to average over the year — which we convert into an expected year-end rate and number of moves.
CME FedWatch shows the bond-market path for free. KOPS adds one continuous number and the gap between the Kalshi signal and the bond market — where sentiment and institutional positioning disagree.
How many times the Fed cuts this year is the trade behind every other trade — and the answer lives in two places that rarely agree. The futures curve says one thing; the Kalshi signal says another. Most people read one and ignore the other.
So the most-watched path in markets is told in two languages, and the disagreement — often the real signal — goes unmeasured.
CUTS reads both. It prints the Kalshi signal’s expected path and the Treasury-implied path as one continuous number and surfaces the gap between them. When the Kalshi signal and the curve pull apart, that disagreement is the tradeable signal — and we publish it live.
The CUTS signal reads Kalshi's rate-cut-count market — how many cuts traders expect in 2026. These are the most-probable outcomes right now.
One holdable number for net moves, and the Kalshi-vs-curve gap nobody else publishes.