Two markets price the same thing — where the Fed funds rate lands by year-end. The prediction market (Kalshi KXRATECUTCOUNT) and the derivatives market (CME Fed Funds futures) rarely agree. The gap between them is the basis — and when one is right, it's a signal in the other.
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reading both venues…
·Kalshi · year-end rate
·CME futures · year-end
CME Fed Funds futures · implied path
the market-implied average fed funds rate, by contract month — blue dashed = Kalshi year-end, purple dashed = Polymarket's meeting-by-meeting path. Three venues, one underlying.
Prediction market ↔ prediction market · same question, two venues
Kalshi and Polymarket both price the calendar-2026 Fed cut count. The gap between their implied year-end rates is the PM↔PM basis — pure venue disagreement, no derivatives leg.
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·Kalshi · 2026 cuts
·Polymarket · 2026 cuts
Next FOMC meeting · the same decision, venue by venue
Both venues price the next decision meeting directly. Expected move in bps from each venue's decision book — the gap is where they disagree about the very next step.